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Crisis preparedness · Europe

Ready for the long winter of uncertainty

Project Fimbul helps you prepare for a crisis calmly and sensibly, with honest numbers on what could happen, clear guidance on what you can do yourself, and gear that keeps working when the power, water or internet goes down.

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The basics · three weeks

Three weeks on your own

The Dutch government advises being able to manage on your own for 72 hours; in September 2026, researchers advised aiming for 8 days of food. We recommend at least 3 weeks per person. Here is why.

Minimum supplies in days, as advised by European governments

The minimum number of days you should be able to manage without help, according to official agencies. As of October 2026.

Why three weeks?

During the pandemic, the founder of Project Fimbul restocked supermarkets himself. About a quarter of each truck, sometimes less, went to a single store. Toilet paper and water sold out fastest, and it took 1 week before the shelves were fully restocked. And that was without a fuel shortage.

Almost all trucks in Europe run on diesel. Governments can release strategic diesel reserves during shortages, but those reserves are finite. If they are not replenished in time, deliveries can stall for longer than 1 week. Three weeks of supplies gives you that margin.

Emergency kit

The items below, kept together in one fixed place.

Emergency plan

Where you meet, who picks up the children, who calls whom.

Together

Talk it through with your household and neighbours, and help each other.

    How much do you need?

    Period
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    DFQ · mental strength

    DFQ: Don't Fucking Quit

    Water, food and supplies keep you alive. Your mind decides whether you keep going. DFQ is our rule for when things get hard: you don't give up.

    Why DFQ matters in a major crisis or war

    Disaster research shows that real panic is rare, but many people hesitate or are confused at first. If you prepare mentally in advance, you get through that first shock faster.

    A major crisis or war doesn't last a day. It lasts weeks or months. Cold, fatigue, bad news and uncertainty wear you down. That is why military survival training calls the will to survive the most important thing you have.

    DFQ doesn't mean you have to carry everything alone. Asking for help, resting and looking out for each other is exactly how you keep going.

    How to keep going

    Breathe first

    When shock or panic hits: breathe in for 4 counts, hold for 4, breathe out for 4 and hold again for 4. A few rounds help you think clearly again.

    Small goals

    Don't think about the whole winter. Think about the next hour: boil water, stay warm, turn on the radio. Every goal you reach gives you something to hold on to.

    Keep a rhythm

    Set times for getting up, eating, sleeping and the news. Routine brings calm, for children too.

    Stay connected

    Agree with family and neighbours how you will reach and help each other. Together you hold out longer than alone.

    Ration the news

    Listen to official sources at set times, then switch off. Rumours and endless scrolling wear you out.

    Look after your body

    Sleep, eat and drink, even when you're not hungry. An exhausted body makes worse choices.

    Time and routine

    Wear a watch that works without power or a network: battery, solar or wind-up. It gives your day structure. Write down what needs doing and plan it in fixed time blocks: for example, check water and heat every hour, and eat, listen to the news and rest at set times. Tick off what's done. That way you always have something to do and keep track when the days start to blur.

    Do you notice that you or someone close to you can't cope any more? Talk about it and get help. In immediate danger, call 112. Not giving up also means daring to ask for help.

    Knowledge

    Guides you can read offline too

    Practical guides, tested in real life in Sweden and the Netherlands. The first guides are in the works.

    In preparation

    Power cut: the first 72 hours

    What still works, what stops, and in which order to sort things out.

    In preparation

    Storing and purifying water

    How much, how long it keeps, and what to do when tap water can no longer be trusted.

    In preparation

    Communicating without a network

    Emergency radio, PMR446 walkie-talkies and LoRa mesh: what they can do and how to get started.

    In preparation

    Staying warm off the grid

    Keeping one room warm, heating safely and preventing carbon monoxide poisoning.

    In preparation

    Your emergency plan on paper

    A fill-in plan for the whole household, with addresses, arrangements and contacts.

    In preparation

    Reading the clock

    What the Fimbulvintern probabilities do and do not tell you, and why it is not a prediction.

    Official information by country: NL · denkvooruit.nl DE · bbk.bund.de SE · krisinformation.se SE · mcf.se NO · sikkerhverdag.no DK · brs.dk FI · 72tuntia.fi

    What war does to money

    We looked at six wars and crises in Europe. In most of them ordinary money lost value fast, and each time governments stepped in with new currencies, frozen accounts or capital controls.

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    Germany · 1914–1923

    What happened
    The war was paid for with loans and printed money. In November 1923 one dollar cost 4.2 trillion marks; in 1914 it had been 4.2 marks.
    What governments did
    A new currency, the Rentenmark: 1 Rentenmark replaced 1 trillion (10¹²) paper marks. Savings were wiped out.

    Netherlands · 1945

    What happened
    During the occupation the money supply grew from ƒ2.6 billion (1940) to ƒ10.9 billion (1945), while far less was available to buy.
    What governments did
    Minister Lieftinck's monetary purge: 100-guilder notes became invalid on 9 July, all other notes on 26 September. Bank accounts were frozen and everyone first received ƒ10 in new money.

    Hungary · 1945–1946

    What happened
    The worst hyperinflation ever recorded: in July 1946 prices doubled roughly every 15 hours.
    What governments did
    On 1 August 1946 the forint arrived: 1 forint replaced 4 × 10²⁹ pengő.

    West Germany · 1948

    What happened
    After the war the Reichsmark was almost worthless. Cigarettes worked better as a means of payment than money.
    What governments did
    On 20 June 1948 the Deutsche Mark was introduced. Wages and prices converted 1 to 1, but savings were converted at roughly 10 Reichsmarks to 1 Deutsche Mark or worse.

    Ukraine · 2014–2022

    What happened
    After the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas, the hryvnia fell from about 8 to more than 30 per dollar (February 2015).
    What governments did
    When the full-scale invasion began in 2022, the central bank fixed the rate at 29.25 per dollar, and in July 2022 adjusted it to 36.57: the dollar became 25% more expensive. Withdrawing and transferring foreign currency was restricted.

    Russia · 2022

    What happened
    After the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, the rouble fell to historic lows.
    What governments did
    The central bank raised its key rate to 20%, exporters had to convert 80% of their foreign earnings, and capital controls were introduced. The rate recovered, but Russians could no longer freely withdraw their dollar savings or move money abroad.

    What you can learn from this

    • Ordinary money in the bank and large banknotes were always the most vulnerable.
    • Governments intervene with new currencies, frozen accounts and capital controls, often overnight.
    • Spreading helps: supplies, cash in small denominations and tangible assets. Bitcoin can be a supplement, without any guarantee.

    Sources: ESB · Interfax · UNIAN · BOFIT

    Bitcoin · in a crisis

    What Bitcoin can and cannot do when things go wrong

    Bitcoin is often seen as a safe haven. In a real crisis it only helps if there is power, internet and someone willing to accept it. Here is what it does and does not do.

    Prices

    Why Bitcoin in a major crisis?

    During wars and major crises, governments have often created large amounts of extra money in the past, partly to pay for defence. That can lead to high inflation, making your euros or kronor lose value quickly.

    There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, and nobody can create more. That gives it a chance to hold its value better than money that is being printed, so that after the crisis you may be able to exchange it back into your own currency at a fair rate.

    No guarantee: the price swings sharply, can fall hard precisely during a panic, and exchanging back depends on working exchanges and the rules in your country.

    What it can do

    Move value across borders without a bank, even when payments in your own country falter. You don't need anyone's permission.

    What it cannot do

    Without power and internet you cannot send anything or check whether a payment has arrived. You can't pay for groceries with it, and in a market panic the price can drop sharply, right when you need it.

    Storing it safely

    If you don't hold your own keys, you don't have real control. An exchange can halt withdrawals in a crisis. Use a hardware wallet and keep your recovery phrase on paper or metal in a safe place.

    Our rule

    We only cover Bitcoin: the oldest and most widely supported network, with no central issuer. It is a supplement, not a replacement for cash, water and food. Build your basic supplies first, and only put money into Bitcoin that you can afford to lose.

    Silver · tangible value

    Silver coins as a means of exchange

    Alongside cash and Bitcoin, you can keep part of your reserve in silver bullion coins. Silver has been used as money for thousands of years and needs no power, internet or bank.

    What it can do

    You hold it in your hand: it works without power or a network, and it cannot be frozen or printed. A 1 troy ounce coin (31.1 grams) is small enough to trade with, whereas gold quickly carries too much value for that.

    What it cannot do

    Shops don't accept it in normal times, and in a crisis there is no certainty anyone will take it either. The price fluctuates, and there is a sizeable gap between the buying and selling price.

    Which coins

    Choose well-known .999 silver coins from a state mint, such as the Maple Leaf, Vienna Philharmonic, Britannia or Kangaroo. They are the easiest for anyone to recognise. Buy from an established dealer: counterfeit coins are in circulation. Silver is not magnetic, and weight and size must match exactly.

    Costs and VAT

    Unlike investment gold, silver is subject to VAT in almost every European country, so you pay noticeably more than the silver price. Some dealers charge VAT only on their margin (the margin scheme), which helps. Keep coins in a safe, dry place and don't tell people you have them.

    No guarantee: the silver price can fall too, and whether you can pay with it in a crisis depends on who is willing to accept it. See it as a supplement to your cash, not a replacement.

    Not financial advice

    We mention cash, Bitcoin and silver only as a supplement to your means of getting by in a crisis. This is general information and not financial advice from Project Fimbul. If you are interested in any of these financial assets, always consult a licensed financial adviser first.

    Gear · our recommendations

    Gear that works

    What you should have at home, and what to look out for when buying. You don't have to buy everything new: you may already have much of it.

    We earn nothing from these recommendations or links. Buy wherever you like.

    In-depth tests of specific products are on the way.

    Support us

    Keep Project Fimbul independent

    Project Fimbul earns nothing from what you buy: no affiliate links, no advertising, no paid recommendations. The site, the crisis clock and the translations run on voluntary donations. If you find this useful, every contribution helps.

    Our only official Ko-fi account is ko-fi.com/projectfimbul. If in doubt, always donate via the button on projectfimbul.eu.

    A donation is voluntary and does not entitle you to anything in return. Project Fimbul is not a charity; a donation is not tax-deductible.

    About

    Why Fimbul

    In Norse mythology, the Fimbulwinter is the long, harsh winter that comes before the end of the world. Three winters with no summer in between.

    We use the name as a reminder, not a prediction. Those who are prepared get through the winter. Project Fimbul focuses on Europe and works from Sweden and the Netherlands, so that advice, sources and prices match the situation here as closely as possible.

    Texts, translations and code on this site are made with the help of AI. A human checks everything before it goes online and is responsible for the content. Editor: J W Van Ravesteijn.

    Calm, not afraid

    Being prepared is simply sensible, like owning a fire extinguisher. We never use fear to push you into anything.

    Honest numbers

    The clock shows how certain it is and how well it did in the past. No sensationalism, just sources.

    Tested by us

    What we recommend, we use ourselves: in daily life and in the cold.